Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES36¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 5
Sep 3 forecast
The final polls cluster at the target band’s edges and center, so an SPD second-vote share from 7% to 9% is genuinely close.
The three latest major surveys place the SPD at 7%, 8%, and 9%, making the target band plausible but leaving substantial risk on both sides. The party also won 8.4% in 2021, close to the center of the band. Wide survey uncertainty and an unusually unsettled electorate make the outcome genuinely close rather than secure.
Points to YES
- The final Infratest dimap poll placed the SPD near the center of the target band.A poll conducted August 24–25 put the SPD at 8% and one point above its late-July reading.
- The latest INSA reading put the SPD at the band’s lower edge.Interviews conducted August 26–September 1 put the SPD at 7%.
- The SPD’s previous state-election result sits comfortably inside the target range.The SPD received 8.4% of the second vote in the 2021 Sachsen-Anhalt election.
Points to NO
- Survey uncertainty is large relative to the narrow target band.On September 2, the latest INSA poll reported a statistical margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
- Another final poll placed the SPD at the upper cutoff, leaving clear overshoot risk.A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey conducted August 25–27 put the SPD at 9%.
- Many voters remained unsettled shortly before election day, increasing late-movement risk.In an August 25–27 survey, 31% were unsure whom they would support or whether they would vote.
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