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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 7, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+20%$100 paper stake
Polymarket83¢ 100¢
Our position · YES83¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Sep 1 forecast

A registered Fable 5.1 API identifier signals late-stage deployment, so Anthropic’s next Mythos-class model reaching the public by September 7 is highly likely.

Fable 5.1’s distinctive registration in Amazon Bedrock is the clearest sign that launch preparation is advanced. The evidence is not uniformly supportive: Anthropic had published no announcement, documentation, or pricing by August 30, and security incidents disrupted model evaluations. Anthropic’s no-release statement applies to Model 2, however, and does not directly rule out Fable 5.1. The late-stage technical footprint makes a qualifying public release highly likely despite meaningful operational risk.

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