Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Aug 25?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES43¢

PublishedAug 25

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin already traded well above the threshold today and remains close to it, so a qualifying August 25 reading is favored but far from guaranteed.

Bitcoin spent several early hours above $80,000 before retreating only slightly below the threshold, leaving a rebound within ordinary intraday movement. Strong spot-fund inflows support renewed buying, but overbought momentum, active selling near recent highs, and demand for downside protection make another sharp reversal plausible. The absence of a specified fixing time or reference source adds meaningful uncertainty because the day's observations straddle the threshold.

Points to YES

Repeated trading above $80,000 shows that buyers can clear the threshold, increasing the chance that a qualifying August 25 observation is used.
On August 25, hourly closes from 02:00 through 06:00 UTC remained above $80,000.
Large spot-fund inflows provide sustained underlying demand that could lift Bitcoin back above the threshold after the midday retreat.
On August 25, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds were reported to have attracted $1.92 billion in the preceding week and another $337 million that day.

Points to NO

The latest real-time reading was below $79,000, showing that the early breakout had faded and leaving the outcome exposed to the chosen observation time.
At 12:37:50 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Real Time Index stood at $78,933.67.
Overbought momentum and concentrated selling near recent prices increase the risk that rebounds fail before reaching a qualifying reading.
On August 25, Bitcoin's momentum gauge was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Continued demand for downside protection signals concern about reversal risk, increasing the chance of another drop below the threshold.
On August 25, seven-day options skew remained negative even after Bitcoin moved above $80,000.

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