Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+54%$100 paper stake

Polymarket35¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO65¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 26

Forecast updated

Aug 26 forecast

Lula leads most national measures and holds broader regional support, so a Flávio Bolsonaro victory is a meaningful underdog.

The contest is competitive, with several runoff surveys showing only a small Lula advantage and Flávio performing strongly across much of the South and among evangelical voters. Yet Lula retains the more favorable path: he leads most national surveys, dominates several Northeastern states and has stronger coalition and advertising support. With neither candidate gaining clear momentum immediately after the first debate, the race should remain close while Flávio stays the underdog.

Points to NO

Lula’s recurring national lead leaves Flávio needing additional movement during the short remaining campaign, lowering his chance of finishing first.
On August 26, an Indexa/Broadcast simulated runoff placed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 41%.
Lula’s overwhelming Northeastern margins can outweigh Flávio’s Southern advantages unless he wins the largest electoral states decisively.
Quaest state polling released August 24–25 found Lula far ahead in Maranhão and Pernambuco while São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro were technically tied.
Lula’s broader alliance and larger broadcast allocation give him more capacity to defend his lead during the decisive final stretch.
On August 20, the TSE assigned Lula’s coalition more daily broadcast time and insertions than Flávio’s unallied Liberal Party for advertising beginning August 28.

Points to YES

Near-tied runoff polling keeps a realistic path open because modest late movement could put Flávio ahead.
Nexus polling conducted August 21–23 placed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 45% in a simulated runoff, narrowing from the previous round.
Competitive standings in Brazil’s largest electoral centers give Flávio a plausible route to compensate for Lula’s strongest regions.
Quaest polling conducted August 21–24 placed Flávio and Lula within the margin of error in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, with Flávio numerically ahead in all three.

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