Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES62¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 4
Sep 2 forecast
Late polling clusters inside the target band, so a 5%–7% Green second-vote share is favored but far from guaranteed.
Most late-August and early-September readings place the Greens at 5% or 6%, with the weighted polling trend also inside the target band. Earlier 4% polls and a large undecided bloc preserve meaningful downside, while the narrow band leaves some upside risk. The party’s 5.94% result in 2021 further supports another finish near the threshold. Overall, a 5%–7% second-vote share is favored but far from guaranteed.
Points to YES
- The multi-institute polling trend places Green support inside the target band.As of August 29, 2026, the weighted Sachsen-Anhalt polling trend put the Greens at 5.6%.
- The newest reported poll puts the Greens at the target band’s lower edge.An INSA survey reported on September 2, 2026, placed the Greens at 5%.
- Another major late-August survey places the Greens safely inside the band.The ZDF-Politbarometer Extra survey conducted August 25–27, 2026, projected the Greens at 6%.
Points to NO
- Earlier polling shows a credible path to the Greens missing the lower boundary.An INSA poll conducted July 31–August 6, 2026, placed the Greens at 4%.
- A large undecided electorate leaves substantial room for a late move outside the narrow band.A survey published August 28, 2026, found that 31% of eligible voters remained undecided about whether or whom to support.
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