Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket57¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES57¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 4
Sep 3 forecast
Late polls cluster at 5%–6%, so Grüne finishing between 5% and 7% of valid second votes is favored but far from guaranteed.
The latest polling average and several final surveys place Grüne within the target band, reversing earlier readings near 4%. Its 2021 result also landed near the middle of this range. The main danger is the lower boundary: one late survey measured exactly 5%, while many voters remained undecided and weaker party attachments make turnout effects unusually important. Overall, a 5%–7% finish is favored but far from guaranteed.
Points to YES
- The current weighted polling average places Grüne inside the target band.On September 3, 2026, the Sachsen-Anhalt weighted polling average put Grüne at 5.3%.
- A major final pre-election survey places Grüne comfortably above the lower boundary.The final Infratest dimap survey, conducted August 24–25, 2026, measured Grüne at 6%.
- Grüne’s previous Sachsen-Anhalt result sits near the middle of the target range.The official 2021 election result gave Grüne 5.94% of valid second votes.
Points to NO
- The latest INSA reading leaves Grüne exposed to even a small election-day decline.An INSA poll with fieldwork ending September 1, 2026, measured Grüne at exactly 5%.
- A large unsettled electorate increases the risk of Grüne finishing outside the narrow band.On August 27, 2026, a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey found that 31% of respondents were unsure whom or whether they would vote for.
- Recent polling history includes readings below the target range.A July 14–21, 2026 INSA poll measured Grüne at 4% in Sachsen-Anhalt.
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