Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES61¢

PublishedSep 9

Sep 9 forecast

Major forecasts cluster at 3.4%, so August year-over-year CPI inflation above 3.3% is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

July’s annual CPI rate was already 3.4%, while the latest nowcast and multiple private forecasts place August at or just above that level. Rebounding gasoline prices and persistent business input costs support another above-threshold reading. The cushion is narrow, however, and cooling core inflation or weaker tariff-sensitive goods prices could pull the reported rate down to the threshold.

Points to YES

July inflation entered August with a narrow cushion above the threshold.
On August 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that all-items CPI rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending in July 2026.
The latest inflation nowcast remains above the required cutoff.
On September 9, the Cleveland Fed nowcast placed August 2026 year-over-year CPI inflation at 3.38%.
A major private forecast expects the annual rate to hold at 3.4%.
On September 8, TD Securities projected August 2026 headline CPI inflation at 3.4% year over year.

Points to NO

Cooling underlying inflation leaves the headline rate vulnerable to slipping to the threshold.
On September 3, Governor Christopher Waller said three-month core inflation through July had declined steadily from 4.76% in February to 3.05%.

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