Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold+52%$100 paper stake

Polymarket58¢ → 88¢

Our position · YES58¢ → 88¢

Signal endedAug 29

Forecast updatedAug 28

Aug 22 forecast

Anthropic already has a stronger post-Mythos model in heavy internal use, so a publicly accessible next Mythos-class model by the deadline is likely.

Anthropic has already built and deployed internally a model stronger than Mythos 5, leaving release readiness, safeguards, and product packaging as the main hurdles. Its June statement that more capable models were coming in the following months supports a release within the window, while Fable 5 shows that Anthropic can wrap Mythos-level capabilities in safeguards suitable for broad access. The main uncertainty is substantial: Anthropic currently has no external-release plan for Model 2, has not completed its usual evaluation suite, and continues to restrict access to the existing Mythos 5 because of dual-use risks. A qualifying successor is therefore likely, but with meaningful uncertainty over whether safety work finishes before the deadline.

Points to YES

A stronger post-Mythos internal model shortens the technical path to a successor, increasing the chance that Anthropic can productize one before the deadline.
On August 14, reporting on Anthropic’s Risk Report said Model 2 was heavily used by staff and noticeably improved on Mythos 5 across many internal tasks.
Anthropic has already demonstrated a route from restricted Mythos capabilities to a safeguarded general-use product, making a similarly packaged successor feasible.
On June 9, Anthropic said Fable 5 and Mythos 5 shared the same underlying model, with Fable 5 adding safeguards and Mythos 5 lifting some of them.
Anthropic’s stated schedule for more capable models points toward another launch during the active window, even though it did not commit to a specific product or date.
On June 9, Anthropic said more capable models were arriving in the coming months while it improved safeguards and reduced false positives.

Points to NO

The strongest known successor candidate is not being prepared for external release, which creates a major timing obstacle and may force Anthropic to use a different model.
On August 19, Anthropic’s Risk Report described Model 2 as unreleased, said there were no current plans to release it externally, and said its normal external-release evaluations were incomplete.
Anthropic’s continuing restrictions on Mythos 5 show that dual-use safety concerns can delay broad access even after a capable model is technically ready.
As of August 22, Anthropic’s Mythos page said Mythos 5 remained limited to a small, growing group through trusted-access programs, with expansion focused on vetted partners.

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