Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Signal ended

Entry · YES61¢

PublishedSep 10

Sep 10 forecast

Most major forecasts cluster at 3.4%, so August 2026 U.S. CPI inflation above 3.3% is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

Most current forecasts place August annual inflation at 3.4%, just above the cutoff, while a smaller group expects exactly 3.3%. July was already at 3.4%, and several independent projections expect that pace to hold, making an above-threshold reading likely with meaningful uncertainty because a small miss changes the result.

Points to YES

A broad economist poll expects annual CPI inflation to remain at 3.4% in August.
On September 9, a Reuters poll projected 3.4% year-over-year inflation after a 0.4% monthly increase.
The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate remains above the market threshold.
On September 8, the Cleveland Fed nowcast estimated August headline CPI inflation at 3.38% year over year and 0.36% month over month.
Annual headline inflation entered August already above the threshold.
The official July CPI release showed prices rising 3.4% over the preceding 12 months.

Points to NO

Some economist estimates put August inflation exactly at 3.3%, which would not clear the threshold.
On September 9, economists surveyed by FactSet forecast annual CPI inflation slowing from 3.4% in July to 3.3% in August.

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