Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES62¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 4
Sep 2 forecast
Late polls cluster inside the target band despite earlier weaker readings, so a Grüne second-vote share from 5% to 7% is favored but far from guaranteed.
The strongest late surveys put Grüne at 5% or 6%, while the polling trend sits at 5.2% and the party won 5.94% in 2021. Those readings make the target band favored but far from guaranteed. Repeated earlier measurements at 4%, historical polling overstatements, and many unsettled voters leave meaningful risk that Grüne finishes below 5%; a smaller upside risk also remains because the band ends at 7%.
Points to YES
- A major late projection places Grüne comfortably inside the target band.On August 27, 2026, a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projection based on interviews conducted August 25–27 measured Grüne at 6%.
- The broader polling trend also centers Grüne inside the required range.On August 26, 2026, the published Sachsen-Anhalt polling trend placed Grüne at 5.2%.
- Grüne’s previous Sachsen-Anhalt result provides a recent electoral precedent near the middle of the band.The official final result for the June 6, 2021 election gave Grüne 5.94% of valid second votes.
Points to NO
- Several earlier polls placed Grüne below the band, showing that its late improvement is not firmly established.An INSA poll conducted from July 31 through August 6, 2026 measured Grüne at 4%.
- Grüne has historically finished somewhat below prominent final polling measurements.A comparison published on August 29, 2026 reported that Grüne results averaged 0.3 points below Infratest dimap polling and 0.7 points below Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polling.
- A large unsettled electorate increases the risk of movement outside a narrow result band.On August 27, 2026, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen reported that 31% of respondents were unsure whom or whether they would vote for.
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