PolymarketSignal published Jul 17Q forecast updated 24d ago

No Russia-Ukraine Meeting Expected Before August

Buy NO

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold+45%$100 paper stake

Polymarket44¢ → 19¢

Our position · NO56¢ → 81¢

Signal endedJul 24

Jul 17 forecast

Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to meet diplomatically by July 31 because the Kremlin itself says there is no immediate prospect of talks.

Points to NO

Kremlin and Peskov explicitly deny quick resumption prospects (E1, E2)
Evidence
Ukraine proposed a Zelenskyy-Putin Turkey meeting, but Russia has not agreed or confirmed readiness (E3, E4)
Evidence

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