PolymarketSignal published
Red Sea Saturation Attacks Point To Successful Houthi Strike
Buy YES
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+19%$100 paper stake
Polymarket42¢ → 50¢
Our position · YES42¢ → 50¢
Signal endedJul 21
Jul 14 forecast
At least one successful Houthi strike on shipping is likely by July 31 because resumed Red Sea saturation attacks can overwhelm even robust coalition defenses.
Points to NO
- Armed security fired warning shots at small boats, July 13Tanker security teams fired warning shots at boats, July 13.Evidence
Points to YES
- UKMTO recorded 6-boat tanker approach off Aden, July 13UKMTO recorded 6-boat tanker approach off Aden, July 13.Evidence
- Houthi official warned Bab el-Mandeb closure possible, July 14Houthi leadership warned Bab el-Mandeb closure possible, July 14.
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