Will Bank of Canada hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

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Oct 19 forecast

Q expects the Bank of Canada to hold at 2.25% because Canada's core inflation runs below 2% and Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September.

The visible evidence tilts toward no change on October 28. Headline inflation rose to 3.1% in September, but almost all of that came from energy: gasoline prices were up 27.8% year over year and fuel oil up 57.8%, while prices excluding gasoline rose 2.2% and decelerated from August. The Bank of Canada's preferred core measures, CPI-median at 1.9% and CPI-trim at 1.8%, are both below the 2% target, and food bought in stores posted its smallest annual increase since May 2024. At the same time the labour market has weakened, with 68,000 positions lost in September, unemployment at 6.5%, and a fourth consecutive decline in public-sector employment. That combination has most private forecasters — Citi, RBC Economics, CIBC and others — expecting unchanged rates, and the Bank has held at 2.25% through seven consecutive decisions while saying it sees little evidence of spillover into other prices. The case for a hike is nonetheless real. Governor Macklem has said high energy prices are lifting inflation risk and that he is prepared to raise the policy rate at this meeting, and several institutions, including UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank, expect exactly that. The judgment here is that the Bank prefers to see whether second-round effects actually appear before moving, and that the weaker labour backdrop buys it that time. Markets currently treat an October hike as somewhat more likely than this forecast does, and the strongest reason for that gap is Macklem's explicit readiness to act rather than wait.

Points to NO

The Bank of Canada's preferred core inflation measures are running below the 2% target, removing the main argument for an immediate hike.
In September 2026, CPI-median was 1.9% and CPI-trim was 1.8%, both under the Bank's 2% target.
A sharply weaker labour market gives the Bank room to wait rather than tighten into a slowdown.
Canada lost 68,000 positions in September 2026 and unemployment rose to 6.5%, with manufacturing payrolls falling after new U.S. tariffs.
The inflation surge is concentrated in energy rather than broadening, and core-adjacent components such as food and non-gasoline prices are cooling.
In September 2026, gasoline prices rose 27.8% year over year while CPI excluding gasoline rose 2.2%, down from 2.4% in August.

Points to YES

Governor Macklem has publicly said he is prepared to raise the 2.25% policy rate at the October meeting if energy-driven inflation risk builds.
On October 17, 2026, Macklem said high energy prices were boosting inflation risk and that he was prepared to raise the 2.25% policy rate at the October meeting.
Several major forecasters, including UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank, expect a 25-basis-point hike in October.
As of October 1, 2026, UBS Global Research's baseline, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank all projected a Bank of Canada rate increase in October 2026.

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