PolymarketSignal published
Nightly US Strikes Rule Out Iran Ceasefire By August 14
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
24h volume $202kMarket deadline Aug 14P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−16%$100 paper stake
Polymarket32¢ → 43¢
Our position · NO68¢ → 57¢
Signal endedJul 25
Jul 18 forecast
A US-Iran ceasefire by August 14 is almost certainly out of reach because nightly US strikes through July 17 leave no room for a 14-day strike-free window.
Points to NO
- Confirmed nightly strikes through July 17 with expanded geographic reach reset any 14-day clock continuously.Evidence
- US strategy explicitly targets Iranian infrastructure to squeeze the regime, implying sustained rather than paused operations.Evidence
- The interim ceasefire has collapsed, removing the institutional framework that could enforce a 14-day pause.Evidence
Points to YES
- The calendar is tight: any halt after Aug 1 cannot complete 14 days by Aug 14, structurally capping YES.Evidence
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