PolymarketSignal published
Bank Of Russia Likely Holds Rate At July Meeting
Buy NO
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
Market deadline Jul 24P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ → 100¢
Our position · NO38¢ → 0¢
Signal endedJul 24
Jul 22 forecast
The central bank is expected to keep the key rate at 14.25% on July 24, with overwhelming analyst consensus and rising inflation expectations making a cut unlikely.
Points to NO
- Overwhelming analyst consensus (18 of 22) expects the rate to stay at 14.25%, with only one making a cut the baseline.Evidence
- Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 14.7% in July, the highest this year, strengthening the case for holding.Evidence
- The fuel crisis is a supply shock accelerating price growth, and experts say the room for easing has narrowed.Evidence
Points to YES
- Political figures including Putin have described rate cuts as natural, and one lawmaker expects a symbolic 25bp reduction.Evidence
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