PolymarketSignal published
US-Iran Meeting Unlikely Before End Of July
Buy NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+40%$100 paper stake
Polymarket38¢ → 14¢
Our position · NO62¢ → 86¢
Signal endedJul 20
Jul 13 forecast
A senior US-Iran meeting by July 31 is unlikely, as Iranian strikes on regional mediator venues have closed the space for talks.
Points to NO
- IRGC struck US installations in five mediator states, July 12IRGC struck US installations in five mediator states, July 12 2026
- US and Iran traded major kinetic strikes, July 11-13US and Iran traded major kinetic strikes, July 11-13 2026
- Iranian Foreign Ministry invalidated previous MOU, July 13Iranian Foreign Ministry invalidated previous MOU, July 13 2026
Points to YES
- Iranian FM acknowledged active Qatari and Omani mediation, July 13Iranian FM acknowledged active Qatari and Omani mediation, July 13 2026
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