PolymarketSignal published
Israel Keeps Its Airspace Open Through July
Buy NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+5%$100 paper stake
Polymarket16¢ → 12¢
Our position · NO84¢ → 88¢
Signal endedJul 25
Jul 18 forecast
Israel is highly unlikely to close its airspace by July 31 because authorities are actively preserving open civil skies to protect summer flights.
Points to NO
- Ben Gurion is actively operating with departures/arrivals (E2) and government aims to protect summer flights through July 21 (E5,E6).Evidence
- IAA publishes only localized NOTAMs (UAV, routes, runway) with no broad suspension (E1).Evidence
- EASA lowered Israel risk classification and the conflict-zone bulletin expired July 8 (E3); prior conflict airspace fully reopened (E8).Evidence
Points to YES
- The region remains conflict-prone and 13 days allow for sudden escalation; prior conflict did cause temporary closures.Evidence
- The same-market prior forecast (2026-07-13) assigned 11.5%, reflecting residual volatility.
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