Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Realized · 7-day hold+21%$100 paper stake
Polymarket18¢ → 1¢
Our position · NO82¢ → 99¢
Signal endedSep 6
Forecast updatedSep 2
Aug 30 forecast
The latest seat calculation puts AfD six seats short, so an AfD absolute majority in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag is a long shot.
AfD dominates current polling but remains below an outright seat majority in the latest projections. Its route depends on unusually many votes going to parties that fail the five-percent threshold, which would inflate AfD’s seat share. Recent gains for the SPD and Greens make that route narrower, so an AfD absolute majority remains a long shot despite substantial late voter uncertainty.
Points to NO
- The latest seat calculation leaves AfD six seats below an absolute majority.On August 28, applying the latest ZDF projection to the regular Landtag size gave AfD 37 seats when 43 were required.
- Two independent final-week projections show AfD needing a governing partner.The August 26 Infratest dimap projection put AfD at 42% and indicated that it would lack a majority.
- Late gains for the SPD and Greens reduce the number of votes excluded from seat allocation.On August 29, DIE ZEIT reported that recent increases could put both the SPD and Greens above the five-percent threshold.
Points to YES
- Votes cast for parties below five percent can turn a low-forties AfD result into a seat majority.On August 28, ZDFheute calculated that AfD could secure an absolute majority with more than 42.5% if 15% of votes went to parties missing the threshold.
- AfD has reached 43% in recent surveys, close to a threshold-sensitive majority path.An August Geostrategy poll put AfD at 43%, 23 percentage points ahead of the CDU.
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