Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES56¢

PublishedSep 7

Sep 7 forecast

Multiple August estimates sit just above the strict threshold, so year-over-year CPI inflation above 3.3% is favored but far from guaranteed.

July’s official annual CPI rate was 3.4%, and several August estimates point to continued inflation near that level as firmer energy prices lift the monthly index. The Cleveland Fed’s 3.37% nowcast also sits above the cutoff, but only narrowly, leaving rounding and ordinary forecast error capable of producing 3.3%. Taken together, the evidence favors an August rate above 3.3%, though a small downside surprise could reverse the outcome.

Points to YES

Annual CPI entered August already above the threshold.
On August 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI rose 3.4% over the twelve months ending in July 2026.
August energy acceleration is expected to keep annual inflation at 3.4%.
On September 4, RBC Economics forecast a 0.4% monthly CPI increase and a steady 3.4% annual rate for August.
Economists broadly expect another firm monthly headline reading.
On September 4, economists polled by Reuters projected a 0.4% increase in August headline CPI.

Points to NO

The expected annual rate is only narrowly above the strict cutoff.
As of August 28, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast placed August annual CPI inflation at 3.37%.
Annual inflation has retreated sharply from its spring peak.
Data published September 7 showed annual CPI falling from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June and 3.4% in July.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.