PolymarketSignal published
Closed Strait Keeps Hormuz Transits Under 40 In July
Buy NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+36%$100 paper stake
Polymarket32¢ → 8¢
Our position · NO68¢ → 92¢
Signal endedJul 19
Jul 12 forecast
Daily Hormuz transits will very likely stay below 40 through July 31, because Iran's confirmed July 12 strike on a commercial vessel keeps shipping away.
Points to NO
- Tehran announced formal Hormuz closure, July 12Directly invalidates prior assumptions of an open, high-variance transit corridor.Evidence
- Iranian forces damaged GFS Galaxy, July 12Physical destruction prevents commercial risk-taking and spikes insurance.Evidence
- Traffic plunged to 34 vessels, July 10Confirms the baseline traffic had already dropped below the 40 threshold before the formal closure.
Points to YES
- US Navy mass escort potentialA bundled convoy could artificially create a single >40 spike day.
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