PolymarketSignal published
Israeli Airspace Likely Stays Open
Buy NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+14%$100 paper stake
Polymarket16¢ → 5¢
Our position · NO84¢ → 95¢
Signal endedJul 27
Jul 20 forecast
No broad Israeli airspace closure is expected; authorities reopened Terminal 1 and scheduled record passenger volumes through July 30 with no credible closure notice.
Points to NO
- The Israeli Airports Authority lists Terminal 1 reopening and forecasts about 94,000 passengers on July 30, showing active planning that assumes open skies through the resolution window.Evidence
- Ben Gurion Airport resumed full operations after earlier conflict, and no credible July 20 report mentions an imminent broad closure.Evidence
- The resolution requires Israel itself to initiate a broad closure; foreign airline suspensions or isolated regional delays do not qualify, reducing false-positive paths.
Points to YES
- Unverified social media posts claim Israel expects cancellations and is considering a drone-flight ban, but these are single-source and not confirmed officially.Evidence
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