Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 30?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · NO76¢

PublishedAug 30

Aug 30 forecast

Bitcoin remains below $78,500 and its prior-day high also missed the strike, so settlement at or above the threshold is unlikely but still live.

Bitcoin is around $78,015, about 0.62% below the $78,500 strike, with roughly ten hours remaining. Its preceding-day high was $78,334.44, while the latest rally above $81,000 has already faded into the $77,000–$78,000 area. A modest intraday recovery and Bitcoin’s capacity for sharp moves keep an above-strike settlement live, but the current shortfall and failed follow-through make a below-strike finish more likely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin remains below the strike, and its preceding-day high also failed to reach $78,500.
On August 30, Coinbase reported a Bitcoin price of $78,184.04 and a preceding 24-hour high of $78,334.44.
The latest breakout has lost momentum after Bitcoin retreated sharply from above $81,000.
On August 30, Bitcoin touched $81,240 before retreating into the $77,000–$78,000 zone.
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand weakened at the end of the week, removing a recent source of buying support.
On August 28, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.8 million in net outflows, ending nine consecutive trading sessions of inflows.

Points to YES

Short-term price direction has turned modestly positive, helping Bitcoin narrow the gap to the strike.
On August 30, Coinbase reported that Bitcoin had risen 0.82% over the preceding 24 hours.
Recent volatility shows Bitcoin can traverse the remaining distance to $78,500 quickly.
On August 28, Bitcoin briefly rallied to $81,500 before pulling back below $79,300.

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