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PolymarketSignal published

August 14 US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline Slips Out Of Reach

Buy NO

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

24h volume $202kMarket deadline Aug 14P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+1%$100 paper stake
Polymarket34¢ → 34¢
Our position · NO66¢ → 66¢
Signal endedJul 24
Jul 17 forecast

A completed US-Iran ceasefire by August 14 is extremely unlikely because confirmed US strikes through July 16 leave scant room for the required 14-day strike-free window.

Points to NO
  • US strikes reported through July 16 across multiple Iranian provinces and infrastructure, with CENTCOM confirming new rounds July 15.
    Evidence
  • White House and Trump signals lean toward expanding operations, Iran declared the interim deal void, and mediators report no sustained halt.
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Diplomatic mediators continue efforts and a blockade/restriction framework exists, offering a narrow path to sudden de-escalation.
    Evidence

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