Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Realized · 7-day hold−2%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ → 75¢
Our position · YES76¢ → 75¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedSep 3
Aug 29 forecast
Several recent seat projections cluster inside the target range, so an AfD finish of 38–41 seats is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
Several independent polling-based allocations place the AfD squarely within the target range, and the latest weighted trend points to the same outcome. The main threat is the range’s narrowness: one recent calculation produced 37 seats, while threshold outcomes and extra mandates could shift the final total despite similar AfD support.
Points to YES
- The latest weighted trend lands near the center of the target range, making a qualifying AfD result the clearest current path.On August 29, PolitPro’s weighted election trend projected 39 AfD seats.
- Multiple distinct polling exercises translate current AfD support into target-range seat totals, reducing dependence on any single survey.On August 26, the Infratest dimap poll’s theoretical allocation assigned 39 of the regular 83 seats to the AfD.
- Another recent allocation reaches the middle of the range, reinforcing the path to a qualifying result under a different poll.On August 25, the Civey poll’s theoretical allocation assigned 40 of the regular 83 seats to the AfD.
Points to NO
- The newest individual poll-based calculation falls just below the range, showing that a modest shift in votes or seat conversion could defeat YES.On August 28, a calculation based on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF poll allocated 37 of the regular 83 seats to the AfD.
- Parties near the entry threshold can abruptly alter the pool of represented votes, shifting several mandates and threatening such a narrow target.On August 25–27, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF poll placed the SPD at 9%, the Greens at 6%, and both BSW and the FDP at 3%.
- Overhang and compensatory mandates can change the AfD’s final total even if its vote share matches current polls, adding uncertainty around the narrow bracket.On August 28, supplied poll-based theoretical distributions omitted overhang and compensatory mandates, which can make the actual allocation differ at the same vote shares.
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