PolymarketSignal published
Strike Tempo Makes July Deadline Impossible
Buy NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Market deadline Jul 24P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−42%$100 paper stake
Polymarket14¢ → 50¢
Our position · NO86¢ → 50¢
Signal endedJul 27
Jul 20 forecast
No 14-day pause can finish by July 24 because strikes through July 19-20 push the earliest completion past the deadline.
Points to NO
- Consecutive reported strikes through July 19-20 (Al Jazeera and AP News) reset the clock past the resolution window.Evidence
- CENTCOM-confirmed strikes on July 7-8 show no prior 14-day clean window exists before the recent nightly campaign.Evidence
- Commentary on resolution mechanics highlights strict calendar requirements with no reinterpretation pathway for an early finish.Evidence
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