Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES57¢

PublishedSep 8

Sep 8 forecast

July inflation was already 3.4%, and August forecasts broadly expect it to hold there, so an annual rate above 3.3% is likely.

Annual CPI entered August at 3.4%, and multiple previews expect rebounding energy prices to offset cooling goods inflation and preserve that rate. Gasoline and oil strengthened after July’s energy decline, while broad price pressures and sticky services offer additional support. The main risk is that weak core goods and limited energy pass-through produce enough deceleration to reach the cutoff. Overall, an above-threshold August reading is the more likely outcome, though the narrow margin leaves meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES

Annual CPI entered August already above the resolution threshold.
On July 31, U.S. all-items CPI was 3.4% higher than a year earlier.
August headline forecasts center on a reading above the cutoff.
On August 31, TD Securities forecast August headline CPI growth of 0.37% for the month and 3.4% for the year, driven by energy and food.
Rebounding gasoline prices should reverse some of July’s energy relief.
On August 26, average U.S. gasoline prices had rebounded to $4.10 per gallon, and the increase was expected to lift August inflation.

Points to NO

Cooling core goods prices could offset part of the energy-driven increase.
For August, TD Securities expected core goods prices to drag on inflation and annual core CPI to fall to 2.3%.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.