Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+54%$100 paper stake

Polymarket41¢ → 9¢

Our position · NO59¢ → 91¢

Signal endedAug 25

Forecast updatedAug 24

Aug 18 forecast

With domestic gross near $794M on Aug 17 and a projected ~$35M fourth weekend, closing the remaining ~$106M gap by Aug 31 is a meaningful underdog.

The film opened July 31 and reached about $794M by Aug 17, according to The Numbers and Deadline reporting. That leaves roughly $106M to reach $900M with only 13 days remaining, including one more weekend. The fourth-weekend forecast is around $35M, and prior weekends have shown sharp declines—about $70.7M in the third frame, down significantly from earlier peaks. Daily grosses are running in the single-digit millions, implying weekday totals well below weekend levels. Historical comparison also weighs against rapid acceleration: only Force Awakens reached $900M domestic, and it did so in 50 days, not within 32. Coverage from TheWrap notes the film is falling off pace for $1B domestic but could still finish near $960M eventually—implying a long tail, not a sudden spike by month-end. Given all this, the path to $900M by Aug 31 requires a dramatic, unsupported break from current trends. Therefore, reaching that threshold by the deadline is a meaningful underdog, with the most likely outcome being a final August total well below $900M.

Points to NO

The Aug 17 domestic total near $794M leaves over $100M to cover in 13 days, far above the projected pace.
As of Aug 17, 2026, The Numbers lists the domestic total at $794,051,866, and Deadline expects it to cross $800M on Aug 18.
The fourth-weekend forecast of roughly $35M for Aug 22-24 signals steep decay, limiting the biggest remaining revenue window.
Forecasts call for a ~-50% drop to about $35M for the Aug 22-24 weekend.
Historical precedent shows only Force Awakens reached $900M domestic, taking 50 days, which undermines the feasibility of hitting it by day 32.
Only Force Awakens ever reached $900M domestic, doing so in 50 days; no other film has matched that pace.

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