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PolymarketSignal published

Iran Unlikely To Hit A Ship On July 13

Buy NO

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?

Market deadline Jul 13P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO64¢ → 100¢
Signal endedJul 17

Iran is very unlikely to directly hit or board a vessel on July 13, because US military escorts have left few reachable targets.

Points to NO
  • Temporal Exclusion of Major Strike
    GFS Galaxy hit at 2240 UTC July 11, equating to July 12 IRST
    Evidence
  • Target Scarcity
    Commercial traffic falling to six daily vessels, July 13
    Evidence
  • Active US Escorts
    US successfully escorting approximately 20 vessels, July 13
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Ambiguous IRGC 'Stopping' Operation
    IRGC operation stopping two vessels disabling their systems, July 13
    Evidence

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