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PolymarketSignal published

Iran Seen Keeping Skies Open Past July 24

Buy NO

Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

Market deadline Jul 24P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket24¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO76¢ → 100¢
Signal endedJul 25
Jul 19 forecast

Iran is very unlikely to order a nationwide airspace closure before July 24 because it kept its skies open even through recent conflict peaks.

Points to NO
  • No official Iranian NOTAM or state media report of a general closure exists through July 19.
    D1
  • Previous closures were event-specific (funeral July 7, Mashhad July 9) and fall outside or are localized, not FIR-general.
    D2
    Evidence
  • Iran has maintained open eastern FIR through heavy strikes and analysts note strategic value in keeping airspace open.
    R1, EA1
    Evidence

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