PolymarketSignal published
Israeli Airspace Likely Remains Open
Buy NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
Market deadline Aug 15P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+23%$100 paper stake
Polymarket32¢ → 17¢
Our position · NO68¢ → 83¢
Signal endedJul 27
Jul 20 forecast
Israel will likely keep airspace open through August 15 because operations are normal and prior conflicts show localized, not nationwide, restrictions.
Points to NO
- Ben Gurion is operating normally with Terminal 1 and 3 open and flights landing as recently as July 19, according to aviation status and official notices.Evidence
- Resolved similar markets for Israel closure windows in May through July 2026 consistently resolved NO, showing authorities avoid broad closures in comparable conditions.
- Earlier post-conflict reopenings and resumed 24/7 operations show Israel prioritizes aviation continuity.Evidence
Points to YES
- Unverified posts suggest possible drone flight bans, expected cancellations, and airport suspensions in nearby regions, indicating elevated rumor-level risk.Evidence
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