Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket56¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES56¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 5
Sep 2 forecast
Polls cluster inside the target despite sizable error, so an SPD second-vote share of at least 7% but below 9% is favored but uncertain.
SPD's latest readings cluster around the target: INSA has it at 7%, Infratest dimap at 8%, and PolitPro's weighted trend at 7.4%. That concentration makes a result of at least 7% but below 9% the more likely outcome. However, one recent poll placed SPD at the excluded 9% boundary, while past polling errors have been large enough to carry the result outside either edge.
Points to YES
- The broad polling trend places SPD comfortably within the target band.On September 2, PolitPro's weighted Sachsen-Anhalt election trend placed SPD at 7.4%.
- Infratest dimap independently places SPD near the middle of the target band.An Infratest dimap poll conducted August 24–25 put SPD at 8%.
- The latest INSA reading puts SPD exactly at the target band's lower boundary after a small gain.An INSA survey conducted from August 26 through September 1 put SPD at 7%, one percentage point above its August 10 reading.
Points to NO
- Ordinary polling error is wide relative to the target band's narrow width.On September 2, the latest INSA poll reported a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
- A recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll reached the excluded upper boundary.A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll conducted August 25–27 put SPD at 9%.
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