Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake

Polymarket70¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES70¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Multiple user-routing reports point to an imminent Fable update, so a next Mythos-class model by the deadline is likely.

Fable 5.1 is the most plausible near-term candidate because several recent reports describe live routing or release preparation. Anthropic previously used Fable as the publicly accessible form of its Mythos-class technology, providing a direct path to a qualifying launch. The outcome is likely with meaningful uncertainty: the routing reports remain unconfirmed, official materials still omit Fable 5.1, and Anthropic’s known stronger internal successor is not being prepared for external release.

Points to YES

Reported live routing makes Fable 5.1 look closer to deployment than a speculative research model, increasing the chance of a public launch within the window.
On August 27, a monitored post reported Fable 5.1 routing to some web users and said it could arrive as soon as August 28, while labeling the claims unconfirmed.
Anthropic has already used Fable as the public, safeguarded form of Mythos-class technology, making a Fable point release a credible route to a qualifying successor.
On June 9, Anthropic officially described Claude Fable 5 as a Mythos-class model made safe for general use and launched it publicly.

Points to NO

The known stronger successor appears unready for external deployment, reducing the chance that it provides an alternative qualifying release if Fable 5.1 does not launch.
On August 26, a monitored post said Anthropic’s Risk Report described Model 2 as internal-only, with no current external-release plan and unfinished predeployment evaluations.
The absence of Fable 5.1 from recently updated official documentation leaves the reported rollout uncorroborated and raises the risk of delay or misidentification.
Anthropic’s model-settings documentation updated August 26 listed current Fable, Opus, and Sonnet models but did not list Fable 5.1 or another new Mythos-class model.
Anthropic still publicly presents the June models as its latest releases, suggesting that reported deployment activity has not yet matured into an announced product.
As updated on August 28, The Verge continued to identify Fable 5 and Mythos 5 as Anthropic’s most recently released models.

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