Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Realized · 7-day hold−1%$100 paper stake
Polymarket17¢ → 18¢
Our position · NO83¢ → 82¢
Signal endedSep 5
Forecast updatedSep 2
Aug 29 forecast
Recent seat projections consistently leave AfD short, so an absolute Landtag majority is a long shot.
AfD holds a commanding lead, yet every recent survey-based allocation leaves it several seats short of governing alone. Its viable path depends on both a stronger finish and substantial wasted votes among smaller parties. With SPD and the Greens currently above the entry threshold, that combination remains possible but remote.
Points to NO
- The newest seat calculation leaves AfD several seats short, creating a substantial gap to close during the final campaign week.On August 28, a calculation using the latest survey assigned AfD 37 seats against a stated majority threshold of 43.
- SPD and the Greens currently clear the entry threshold, keeping their votes in the seat allocation and reducing AfD’s seat share.The August 25–27 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey measured SPD at 9% and the Greens at 6%, with AfD at 40%.
- Tactical-voting efforts could push vulnerable parties over five percent, preventing their votes from being excluded and making an AfD majority harder.On August 19, campaign groups were urging tactical votes for SPD and the Greens specifically to help them clear the threshold and limit AfD’s seat share.
Points to YES
- Votes lost below the entry threshold could let AfD win a seat majority with well under half the vote, preserving a narrow route to governing alone.On August 28, ZDF calculated that the required vote share would fall from above 45.5% to above 42.5% if excluded votes increased from 9% to 15%.
- A large unsettled electorate leaves room for late shifts in turnout and party choice that could move AfD across the seat threshold.The August 25–27 ZDF survey found 31% were unsure whom or whether they would vote for, with sampling uncertainty of slightly more than three percentage points around AfD’s 40% reading.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.