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PolymarketSignal published

Hormuz Shipping Unlikely To Recover Fully By July 31

Buy NO

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

24h volume $17kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+38%$100 paper stake
Polymarket31¢ → 5¢
Our position · NO69¢ → 95¢
Signal endedJul 8
Jul 1 forecast

Strait of Hormuz traffic will very likely miss the 60-ship benchmark by July 31 because narrow cleared channels physically limit transits.

Points to NO
  • Kpler reported transits dropped to 12
    Kpler reported Strait of Hormuz transits dropped to 12, June 28
    Evidence
  • Mine clearance requires 40-50 days
    Maritime experts estimated mine clearance requires 40-50 days
    Evidence
  • US and Iran exchanged strikes June 28
    US and Iran military forces exchanged strikes, June 28
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • Kpler single-day transits hit 74
    Kpler recorded 74 Strait of Hormuz transits, June 24
    Evidence

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