PolymarketSignal published
US Unlikely To Announce Iran Halt By August
Buy NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
24h volume $19kMarket deadline Aug 31P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket62¢ → 100¢
Our position · NO38¢ → 0¢
Signal endedJul 29
Jul 22 forecast
Active strikes, collapsed ceasefire rhetoric, and a restarted war-powers clock make an official US halt announcement unlikely by Aug 31, though mediation and sudden strategic shifts keep it genuinely possible.
Points to NO
- US strikes continue nightly and have expanded to bridges and ports, with no operational pause visible (E1, E5).Evidence
- Trump has publicly said the ceasefire is over, he may not want a deal, and the US should finish the job (E2).Evidence
- The administration restarted a 60-day war powers notification on July 10, signaling institutional intent to continue hostilities (E6).Evidence
Points to YES
- Mediators are actively proposing a 10-day truce and seeking to salvage talks, creating a diplomatic pathway (E4).Evidence
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