PolymarketSignal published
Flanagan Highly Likely To Win Minnesota Democratic Senate Nomination
Buy YES
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
24h volume $71kMarket deadline Aug 11P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake
Polymarket74¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES74¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 12
Aug 8 forecast
Flanagan is highly likely to win the nomination because she holds the DFL endorsement, leads primary polls, and the Aug. 11 vote is three days away.
Points to NO
- A July 24 KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showed the race tied at 40%-40% with about 16% undecided, indicating meaningful residual uncertainty despite other surveys.A July 24 KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows the DFL Senate primary neck-and-neck at 40%-40%, with Flanagan +4 and Craig -1 from prior month; about 16% undecided.Evidence
Points to YES
- Flanagan secured the DFL endorsement in late May, giving her the party’s official backing and organizational infrastructure heading into the primary.Flanagan won the DFL endorsement in late May; Craig is competing in the Aug. 11 primary without seeking it.Evidence
- A late-July PPP poll of likely Democratic primary voters showed Flanagan leading Craig by 14 points with strong net favorability, reinforcing her front-runner status.A July 23-24 PPP poll of 672 likely Democratic primary voters shows Flanagan leading Craig 46%-32% (14 points), up from a 7-point lead a month earlier; Flanagan net favorability +32.Evidence
- National progressive leaders including Sanders, Warren, and Smith have rallied behind Flanagan, boosting turnout and visibility among the Democratic base.National progressive figures (Sanders, Warren, Smith) have rallied for Flanagan; Craig emphasizes electability and has endorsements including First Lady Gwen Walz, while Gov. Walz remains neutral.Evidence
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