Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?

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Signal ended

Entry · YES62¢

PublishedSep 8

Sep 7 forecast

August projections center on 3.4% headline inflation, so U.S. CPI inflation above 3.3% is favored but far from guaranteed.

July headline CPI was 3.4%, leaving only a narrow cushion above the threshold. August forecasts point to another firm monthly increase and a steady annual rate, while rebounding gasoline prices support headline inflation. Softer core inflation and the recent slowdown keep the result uncertain, but an above-threshold reading is favored rather than assured.

Points to YES

July headline inflation remained above the market threshold.
On August 12, the July CPI report showed all-items inflation at 3.4% over the preceding 12 months.
A prominent August forecast keeps annual headline inflation above the threshold.
On September 4, RBC Economics forecast August headline CPI inflation at 3.4% year over year.
The latest inflation nowcast indicates a firm August monthly increase.
On September 4, the Cleveland Fed nowcast estimated August CPI inflation at 0.36% month over month.

Points to NO

Underlying inflation appears softer than the headline rate.
On September 4, RBC Economics forecast August core CPI inflation to decline to 2.4% year over year.
Headline inflation was already slowing and had little room above the cutoff.
The July report showed annual all-items inflation slowing to 3.4% from 3.5% in June.

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