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PolymarketSignal published

Pre-Blockade Traffic Likely Already Cleared 30-Ship Hormuz Bar

Buy YES

Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

24h volume $4kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold−66%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 12¢
Our position · YES36¢ → 12¢
Signal endedJul 21
Jul 14 forecast

A 30-transit day very likely already occurred before the blockade because traffic still ran at 34 daily transits as late as July 5.

Points to NO
Points to YES
  • July 5 baseline recorded 34 transits
    Evidence
  • Truce held until July 8 attacks
    Evidence

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