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PolymarketSignal published

US-Iran Ceasefire Cannot Complete Before July 24 Deadline

Buy NO

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Market deadline Jul 24P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+14%$100 paper stake
Polymarket14¢ → 2¢
Our position · NO86¢ → 98¢
Signal endedJul 24
Jul 17 forecast

No US-Iran ceasefire can complete by July 24 because strikes through roughly July 16 push the earliest possible end of a 14-day halt to about July 29.

Points to NO
  • Strikes through July 16 reset the 14-day clock; earliest end is ~July 29-30, past resolution.
    Evidence
  • Resolution assessment is fixed at July 24 23:59 ET, before any valid 14-day span can finish.
    Evidence

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