Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Realized · 7-day hold+1%$100 paper stake
Polymarket18¢ → 18¢
Our position · NO82¢ → 82¢
Signal endedSep 6
Forecast updatedSep 2
Aug 30 forecast
The latest seat projections put the AfD below the majority line, so an absolute Landtag majority is a long shot.
Recent polling establishes the AfD as the clear frontrunner, but the latest seat calculations still leave it without an absolute majority. Its strongest remaining path is a threshold-driven seat bonus if smaller parties narrowly fail to enter the Landtag. Late gains for the SPD and Greens have weakened that path, although unsettled voters and possible polling error keep an upset from being dismissed entirely.
Points to NO
- The newest election trend places the AfD three seats below an absolute majority.On August 29, PolitPro projected the AfD to win 39 of 83 seats, short of the 42 needed.
- A major late poll translates into a coalition requirement rather than outright control.On August 28, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projection put the AfD at 40% and concluded that it would need a coalition partner for a parliamentary majority.
- The SPD and Greens now appear capable of keeping their votes represented, limiting the AfD's seat bonus.On August 29, polling values for the SPD and Greens had risen slightly, with both parties positioned to clear the five-percent threshold.
Points to YES
- A narrow threshold miss by the Greens could convert the AfD's vote share into a bare seat majority.On August 25, a calculation based on Civey figures found that a Green result of 4.9% would lift the AfD's seat share to 51.19%.
- Substantial voter uncertainty leaves room for a late mobilization surprise beyond current projections.In fieldwork conducted August 25-27, 31% of respondents were unsure whom they would support or whether they would vote.
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