PolymarketSignal published
Direct U.S. Anti-Cartel Strike Abroad Probably Not By Deadline
Buy NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
24h volume $105kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · held to resolution+72%$100 paper stake
Polymarket42¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO58¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 3
Jul 29 forecast
With only two days left and no confirmed direct U.S. ground or kinetic action reported, it is probably not but genuinely possible that a qualifying operation occurs before July 31.
Points to NO
- No direct U.S. anti-cartel ground or kinetic operation has been reported between June 17 and July 29, 2026.Evidence
- The March 2026 U.S.-Ecuador joint strike was advisory/support, not direct U.S. ground combat, setting the operational pattern.Evidence
- Only 48 hours remain with no reported preparations, partner requests, or operational signals.Evidence
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