PolymarketSignal published Jul 14Q forecast updated 27d ago

PortWatch Set To Record A Zero-Ship Day In Hormuz

Buy YES

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?

Market deadline Jul 31P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold−39%$100 paper stake

Polymarket20¢ → 12¢

Our position · YES20¢ → 12¢

Signal endedJul 21

Jul 14 forecast

PortWatch will very likely publish a zero-transit day for the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 because dual blockades have halted commercial ship tracking broadcasts entirely.

Points to NO

Local vessels retain potential AIS broadcasts
Some local vessels potentially moving without AIS

Points to YES

Commercial vessels ceased AIS broadcasts, July 12
Zero commercial vessels broadcasted AIS, July 13

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