PolymarketSignal published Jul 18Q forecast updated 6d ago

Iran Blockade Set To Outlast August 15 Deadline

Buy NO

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Market deadline Aug 15P(YES)

Realized · 7-day hold−12%$100 paper stake

Polymarket26¢ → 35¢

Our position · NO74¢ → 65¢

Signal endedJul 25

Jul 18 forecast

The US almost certainly will not declare the Iranian blockade over by August 15, having reaffirmed active enforcement by US Central Command as recently as July 17.

Points to NO

CENTCOM officially resumed and is actively enforcing the blockade with vessel disablements.
Evidence
Trump affirmed strikes continue and the blockade remains in effect on July 17.
Evidence
Active strikes and kinetic exchanges continue, structurally disincentivizing unilateral concession.
Evidence

Points to YES

Historical memory cases include several blockade-lifting announcements tied to deal frameworks.

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