PolymarketSignal published
US Unlikely To Halt Iran Strikes
Buy NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
24h volume $285kMarket deadline Aug 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+17%$100 paper stake
Polymarket46¢ → 37¢
Our position · NO54¢ → 63¢
Signal endedJul 27
Jul 20 forecast
No official suspension will come; the administration continues active strikes and rejects ceasefire language through July 31.
Points to NO
- US Central Command and Associated Press report strikes continuing through July 18 and July 19, with no pause mentioned.Evidence
- President Trump stated on July 8 that the ceasefire is over and that the US should finish the job, signaling sustained offensive intent.Evidence
- The resolution criteria require a clear, present, general cessation; partial or tactical changes do not qualify.
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