Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+52%$100 paper stake

Polymarket66¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES66¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 6

Forecast updated

Aug 1 forecast

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is probable through Aug 3, since both sides have avoided direct strikes for a week and Israel remains focused on Gaza and Lebanon with no imminent attack signals.

Over the past week, Israel and Iran have not exchanged direct strikes; Israel is sidelined from the US-Iran conflict and Iran's operations target Hormuz and US forces. With just two days remaining until the Aug 3 deadline, there are no reported preparations or signals of an imminent direct strike. The rules require a specific qualifying air or missile strike to break the ceasefire, and none have occurred. While a surprise attack remains genuinely possible, the short window and stable strategic posture make continuation probable. The forecast expects the ceasefire likely remains intact.

Points to YES

No direct Israel-Iran strikes have been reported since market creation or in the preceding weeks; Israel remains on the sidelines.
Evidence
Iran's recent rhetoric describes prepared plans rather than executed strikes, and its operational focus is on Hormuz and US targets.
Evidence
Only about 48 hours remain in the resolution window, severely limiting time for operational planning and execution of a direct strike.
Evidence

Points to NO

Historical Israel-Iran tensions and Israel's past willingness to strike Iranian targets create a non-zero tail risk of sudden action.
Evidence
Iranian warnings of false-flag operations and readiness to hit Israeli infrastructure indicate latent capability, though not current execution.
Evidence

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