PolymarketSignal published Aug 1Q forecast updated 9d ago

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Probable Through Aug 3

Buy YES

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

Market deadline Aug 3P(YES)

Realized · held to resolution+51%$100 paper stake

Polymarket66¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES66¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 6

Aug 1 forecast

The Israel-Iran ceasefire is probable through Aug 3, since both sides have avoided direct strikes for a week and Israel remains focused on Gaza and Lebanon with no imminent attack signals.

Points to NO

Historical Israel-Iran tensions and Israel's past willingness to strike Iranian targets create a non-zero tail risk of sudden action.
Evidence
Iranian warnings of false-flag operations and readiness to hit Israeli infrastructure indicate latent capability, though not current execution.
Evidence

Points to YES

No direct Israel-Iran strikes have been reported since market creation or in the preceding weeks; Israel remains on the sidelines.
Evidence
Iran's recent rhetoric describes prepared plans rather than executed strikes, and its operational focus is on Hormuz and US targets.
Evidence
Only about 48 hours remain in the resolution window, severely limiting time for operational planning and execution of a direct strike.
Evidence

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