Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket54¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES54¢ → 0¢
Signal endedSep 7
Forecast updatedSep 5
Latest polls cluster around the target range, so an SPD second-vote share between 7% and 9% is favored but far from guaranteed.
The strongest late survey placed the SPD at 8.5%, close to its 8.4% result in 2021, while other recent polls showed 7% and 9%. That cluster centers on the target band but touches both boundaries, and substantial voter uncertainty leaves meaningful room for an outside result. Overall, an SPD second-vote share in the target band is favored but far from guaranteed.
Points to YES
- The latest major projection placed the SPD securely inside the target band.In a survey conducted September 1–3, 2026, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen placed the SPD at 8.5%.
- A separate late poll placed the SPD at 7%, the lower boundary assigned to this range.An INSA poll conducted August 26–September 1, 2026 placed the SPD at 7%.
- The SPD's previous state-election result provides a close historical anchor inside the band.The SPD received 8.4% of the vote in the 2021 Sachsen-Anhalt state election.
Points to NO
- The SPD also reached the upper cutoff in a late poll, creating clear overshoot risk.A Civey poll dated September 3, 2026 placed the SPD at 9%, up two percentage points.
- A large pool of unsettled voters leaves the narrow target band vulnerable to late movement.In the September 1–3 survey, 26% of respondents were unsure whom or whether they would vote for.
Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.