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PolymarketSignal published

US-Iran Ceasefire Seen Unlikely Even By August 31

Buy NO

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

24h volume $234kMarket deadline Aug 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+7%$100 paper stake
Polymarket52¢ → 49¢
Our position · NO48¢ → 51¢
Signal endedJul 24
Jul 17 forecast

A US-Iran ceasefire by August 31 is unlikely because Operation Epic Fury hostilities continue, with US strikes documented through July 16.

Points to NO
  • CENTCOM and media confirm repeated strikes on Iran through July 14-16 with no operational pause (E1-E5).
    Evidence
  • US VP states negotiations continue but violence is being responded to; conflict named Operation Epic Fury with intermittent hostilities (E8).
    Evidence

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