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PolymarketSignal published

Hormuz Daily Transits Expected To Average Under 20

Buy YES

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

24h volume $1kMarket deadline Jul 31P(YES)
Realized · 7-day hold+122%$100 paper stake
Polymarket40¢ → 89¢
Our position · YES40¢ → 89¢
Signal endedJul 19
Jul 12 forecast

Average daily Strait of Hormuz transits will almost certainly stay below 20 on July 31, because Iran's Revolutionary Guard has formally closed the strait to commercial traffic.

Points to NO
  • Oman mediated shipping security talks between US and Iran, July 11.
    Iran and Oman held talks Saturday on managing maritime traffic arrangements
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets, July 11.
    US Central Command forces hit 140 Iranian military targets, July 11
    Evidence
  • Iran formally announced Strait of Hormuz closure, July 11.
    IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday
    Evidence
  • Strait daily transits dropped to 12 vessels, July 11.
    Strait of Hormuz daily transits dropped to 12 ships, July 11
    Evidence

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