Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionAwaiting outcome

VenueKalshi

Signal ended

Entry · YES53¢

PublishedAug 25

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin is already above the threshold amid strong ETF demand, so an August 28 price at or above $78,500 is favored but far from guaranteed.

Bitcoin enters the final days slightly above the required level after a powerful rally supported by large ETF inflows and constrained tradable supply. Those forces make an August 28 price at or above $78,500 favored but far from guaranteed. The cushion is narrow, the rally has already met heavy selling near $80,000, and stretched momentum leaves ample scope for a sharp pullback.

Points to YES

Bitcoin begins the final stretch above the threshold, leaving room for a moderate pullback without defeating the affirmative outcome.
At 15:00 GMT on August 25, the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate was $79,077.32, or $577.32 above the $78,500 threshold.
Strong ETF inflows provide continuing spot demand that can absorb sellers and support Bitcoin above the threshold.
The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds drew $1.92 billion in the week ended August 21 and another $337 million on August 25.
Limited readily tradable supply can amplify sustained buying and help preserve the recent advance through the deadline.
As of August 25, about 60% of circulating Bitcoin had not moved for more than a year.

Points to NO

Repeated rejection near $80,000 shows that nearby sellers can erase the narrow cushion above the threshold quickly.
On August 25, Bitcoin retreated to $79,044 after reaching $81,238, while resistance was identified across $80,000-$82,000.
The rally's reliance on short closures rather than fresh leveraged buying makes its momentum more vulnerable to fading before August 28.
Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest fell to about 587,584 BTC on August 25, its lowest in nearly five months, as short closures and liquidations helped drive the rally.
Heavy profit-taking from recent buyers could accelerate if price stalls, pushing Bitcoin below the threshold despite strong spot demand.
Short-term-holder exchange flows reached positive 28,600 BTC on August 24 while roughly three-quarters of short-term-held supply was profitable.

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