Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?
The newest poll puts SPD at the band’s lower bound and recent polling clusters nearby, so a 7%–9% second-vote share is favored but far from guaranteed.
Late polling centers on the target range: INSA measured SPD at 7%, Infratest dimap measured 8%, and contemporaneous reporting described support at 7%–8%. That makes an in-band result more likely than an out-of-band result. However, another late survey reached the excluded 9% upper boundary, while earlier readings of 6%–6.5% show substantial downside risk. Many voters also remained undecided or uncommitted, leaving enough room for ordinary election-day movement to push SPD outside this narrow interval.
- The newest poll places SPD at the qualifying lower boundary of the target range.In interviews conducted from August 26 through September 1, the latest INSA survey measured SPD at 7%.
- A separate late poll places SPD near the middle of the target range.On August 26, Infratest dimap reported SPD support at 8% in Sachsen-Anhalt.
- SPD’s previous state-election result provides a recent precedent squarely inside the target range.On June 6, 2021, SPD received 8.4% of the vote in the Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election.
- One late survey reaches the excluded upper boundary rather than landing inside the range.On August 28, a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey placed SPD at 9%.
- Earlier polling showed SPD below the target range, preserving meaningful downside risk.A weighted polling average dated August 18 placed SPD at 6.5% in Sachsen-Anhalt.
- Substantial late voter uncertainty could move SPD outside a band only two percentage points wide.In the August Forschungsgruppe Wahlen survey, 31% of respondents were unsure whom or whether they would vote for.
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